Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8a6…eadc other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$108 (+17%) realized +$211 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$50
crypto 22% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -38.5% -44.3% 38% 38% +8.0%
≤30d 13 -38.5% -44.3% 38% 38% +8.0%
≤90d 13 -38.5% -44.3% 38% 38% +8.0%
all 13 -38.5% -44.3% 38% 38% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 38% +8.0%
10% -49.6% 38% -2.4%
15% -54.5% 38% -11.8%
20% -59.0% 38% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$16 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$211
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 14¢ $131 $28 −$103 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $108 +$70 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $84 +$55 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 +$31 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $56 −$54 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $69 +$40 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$24 +52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 −$32 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $136 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $52 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $138 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $84 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $52 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $69 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $33 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.40 · official $28.40 (match) · 20 history records