Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb8a6…ff0b weather 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$247 (-2%) realized −$248 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate75%60W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$329
sports 12% −$214
other 2% +$97
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +55.9% +41.1% 80% 80% -15.8%
≤30d 65 +4.1% -5.8% 74% 43% -13.8%
≤90d 80 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 41% -12.9%
all 80 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 41% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 41% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 25% -21.3%
15% -23.1% 12% -28.9%
20% -30.7% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$98 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses60 / 20
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage31d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $100 +$32 +32%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $202 −$105 -52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$38 +76%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $53 +$51 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $146 +$58 +40%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $142 +$94 +66%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $101 +$29 +29%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on Jun 27 $501 −$387 -77%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $1 +$3 +255%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $98 +$90 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $445 −$444 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 11 $100 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $212 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $110 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $131 +$72 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $191 +$57 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $291 +$18 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $91 −$85 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$10 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $205 +$49 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$12 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 08 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $84 +$22 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $52 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 −$57 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $139 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $364 +$52 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $173 +$13 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $503 −$460 -91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $84 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $43 −$40 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $308 +$37 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $195 +$36 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $262 +$81 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $305 +$39 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $560 +$40 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $106 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $25 −$5 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $228 +$25 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $110 +$17 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $339 +$26 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $326 +$41 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $665 +$114 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $132 0m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $51 0m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $43 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL 88¢ $88 2m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 3m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 15m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 16m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $204 18m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 70¢ $146 39m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $47 58m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $49 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 49¢ $50 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND BUY 11¢ $16 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 59¢ $142 20h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 20h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 20h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on SELL 11¢ $114 20h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on BUY 46¢ $501 25h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY 13¢ $89 25h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL 99¢ $187 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL 98¢ $4 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY 27¢ $1 30h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY 50¢ $98 30h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 90¢ $21 16d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? SELL No 0¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 83¢ $8 16d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 81¢ $13 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.68 · official $23.45 · 807 history records