Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8a3…9b12 crypto 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,321 (+18%) realized +$1,343 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%32W / 60L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,377
7 days+$1,367
14 days+$1,338
30 days+$1,352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,351
other 2% −$53
world 2% +$37
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -32.2% -38.7% 31% 28% +8.9%
≤30d 92 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 32% +7.6%
≤90d 92 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 32% +7.6%
all 92 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 32% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 32% +7.6%
10% -43.3% 32% -2.7%
15% -48.8% 30% -12.1%
20% -53.8% 20% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$28 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,343
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses32 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage34d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E6 S9? No 4¢ 1¢ $25 $4 −$22 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $312 +$500 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $746 +$302 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $205 +$95 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $207 −$97 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $465 +$542 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $204 +$72 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $569 +$218 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $702 +$46 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $309 +$138 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $247 +$130 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $105 +$59 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $572 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $261 +$300 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $53 +$87 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $63 +$119 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$31 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $62 +$76 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$99 +207%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $1 $0 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 28 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $52 −$37 -72%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $52 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $53 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $54 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $105 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $642 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $270 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $185 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $185 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.55 · official $3.55 (match) · 247 history records