Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb89f…1c44
tech · 257 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$44,246 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$35,505 · open +$4,437
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY tech specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36,184
Realized+$35,505
Unrealized+$4,437
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses104 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions149
Markets (closed)165 / 257
History coverage39d
Avg bet$764
Trades / day76.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 149 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,166
7 days+$1,970
14 days+$24,405
30 days+$32,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $3,527 $3,779 +$252 (+7%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 59¢ 92¢ $2,258 $3,486 +$1,228 (+54%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 80¢ 96¢ $1,807 $2,183 +$376 (+21%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,238 $1,987 −$252 (-11%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,687 $1,724 +$37 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 58¢ 91¢ $1,001 $1,563 +$562 (+56%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 55¢ 70¢ $1,201 $1,536 +$336 (+28%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $1,318 $1,456 +$138 (+10%)
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,323 $1,380 +$57 (+4%)
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 2¢ 88¢ $24 $990 +$966 (+4080%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 92¢ 87¢ $977 $921 −$56 (-6%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 61¢ 88¢ $610 $885 +$275 (+45%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $793 $815 +$22 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $660 $715 +$55 (+8%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $926 $714 −$212 (-23%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $638 $705 +$68 (+11%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 91¢ 81¢ $771 $689 −$82 (-11%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 68¢ 89¢ $442 $582 +$140 (+32%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 51¢ 36¢ $790 $564 −$226 (-29%)
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? No 33¢ 64¢ $257 $491 +$235 (+91%)
Will Trump deport 400-500k people? Yes 10¢ 47¢ $98 $461 +$363 (+372%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 70¢ 56¢ $532 $428 −$104 (-20%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No 73¢ 73¢ $395 $394 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 78¢ $19 $390 +$371 (+1928%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? No 68¢ 85¢ $312 $388 +$76 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2,317 +$1,203 +52%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5,096 −$407 -8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2,798 −$841 -30%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $803 +$1,212 +151%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 10 $1,920 −$55 -3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $977 +$165 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $410 +$90 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $664 +$116 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3,349 −$264 -8%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,374 +$92 +7%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $153 −$149 -97%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $346 −$345 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $588 +$58 +10%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $815 +$24 +3%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $169 +$5 +3%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $163 +$14 +8%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $1,866 +$885 +47%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 08 $448 +$60 +13%
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $435 −$3 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $899 +$64 +7%
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +11%
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? Jun 06 $467 +$3 +1%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme Jun 05 $277 +$888 +320%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Gove Jun 05 $432 +$1,474 +341%
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 05 $264 +$1,781 +674%
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slove Jun 05 $525 +$960 +183%
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 05 $1,302 +$2,892 +222%
Will the Party of Generations (SG) be part of the next Government of S Jun 05 $588 +$4 +1%
Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) be part of the next Government of Slo Jun 05 $0 +$256 +68187%
Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 05 $176 +$114 +65%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slove Jun 05 $415 +$16 +4%
Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 05 $98 +$1,734 +1770%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 05 $221 +$11 +5%
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $584 −$4 -1%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? Jun 03 $722 +$20 +3%
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 02 $316 −$316 -100%
Will gemini-3.5-flash have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 02 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $1,521 +$92 +6%
Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 02 $159 +$128 +81%
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $486 −$485 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $811 +$987 +122%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $56 −$56 -100%
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $450 +$352 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$11,496
tech 31% +$49
world 17% +$16,382
politics 10% +$11,636
economics 1% −$652
crypto 0% +$987
finance 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro SELL Yes 10¢ $19 11m
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 21h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 1¢ $65 23h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 30h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 30h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 30h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.3% -8.4% 70% 30% -2.9%
≤30d 147 +64.4% +48.7% 64% 37% +11.8%
≤90d 165 +67.6% +51.7% 63% 39% +11.3%
all 165 +67.6% +51.7% 63% 39% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.7% 39% +11.3%
10% +37.1% 27% +0.6%
15% ← realistic here +23.9% 23% -9.1%
20% +11.8% 21% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,184.26 · official $36,193.62 (match) · 3500 history records