Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb89d…b8b7 crypto 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$365 (-5%) realized −$363 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%68W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$559
other 2% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 33% -19.6%
≤30d 102 -23.7% -31.0% 43% 24% -18.5%
≤90d 147 -19.6% -27.2% 46% 28% -19.5%
all 147 -19.6% -27.2% 46% 28% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 28% -19.5%
10% -34.2% 18% -27.2%
15% -40.6% 11% -34.2%
20% -46.4% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses68 / 79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage59d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Down 54¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$20 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$22 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$7 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$7 -29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$6 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$1 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $28 −$10 -35%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $41 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$5 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $63 −$38 -60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 04 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $72 −$50 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $91 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET Jun 04 $71 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $104 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $61 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $83 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $72 −$20 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $85 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 03 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$10 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $20 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$2 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 03 $62 +$4 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$20 -65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $82 −$1 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 03 $123 −$65 -53%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 03 $51 −$10 -20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 03 $91 −$30 -33%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 03 $11 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $251 −$17 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $18 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $47 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $28 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.19 · official $3.19 (match) · 831 history records