Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb89d…49bc sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$462 (-19%) realized −$506 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$448
sports 48% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.4% -53.3% 29% 29% -52.6%
≤30d 7 -48.4% -53.3% 29% 29% -52.6%
≤90d 7 -48.4% -53.3% 29% 29% -52.6%
all 7 -48.4% -53.3% 29% 29% -52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 29% -52.6%
10% -57.8% 29% -57.2%
15% -61.8% 29% -61.3%
20% -65.6% 14% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$127 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized−$506
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $620 $664 +$44 (+7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 +$124 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $302 −$298 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $163 −$160 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 −$66 -66%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $43 −$34 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $606 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will Spain win on 2026-06 BUY 52¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 32¢ $300 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Paraguay vs. Austra BUY 52¢ $327 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $201 16h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 17h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $35 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $10 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 26¢ $199 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $79 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $43 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.40 · official $1,008.04 · 22 history records