Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B8 0xb89b…1a22 weather 278 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,604 (+11%) realized +$5,680 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate81%223W / 51L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$464
7 days+$1,002
14 days+$481
30 days+$1,839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$2,678
world 3% +$2,678
politics 3% −$48
crypto 2% +$105
tech 0% −$89
other 0% −$20
sports 0% +$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.0% +3.1% 94% 18% +1.6%
≤30d 156 +7.5% -2.7% 90% 17% -5.1%
≤90d 274 +11.1% +0.5% 81% 25% +0.2%
all 274 +11.1% +0.5% 81% 25% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 25% +0.2%
10% -9.1% 20% -9.4%
15% -17.9% 15% -18.2%
20% -26.0% 10% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$35 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$5,680
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses223 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)274 / 278
History coverage61d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Yes 70¢ 94¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $681 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $134 +$154 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $638 +$174 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $175 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 +$15 +22%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $127 +$3 +3%
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $146 +$4 +3%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $1,006 +$91 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $302 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $490 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,003 +$81 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $509 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $124 +$354 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$32 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $302 +$9 +3%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 10 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Trump post "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" on Truth Socia Jun 10 $200 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $726 +$23 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $179 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $454 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $501 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 08 $476 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$13 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $176 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $552 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $401 +$19 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $194 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7? Jun 07 $442 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $801 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $102 +$46 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $179 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 7m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $201 7m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 53m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $699 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $681 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $35 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $102 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $100 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $287 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $813 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $176 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $638 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $134 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $175 19h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 33h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 72¢ $15 36h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 36h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 37h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 37h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 37h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,097 41h
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $127 42h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,006 42h
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $146 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.11 · official $234.11 (match) · 788 history records