Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb89b…eeb7 weather 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+9%) realized +$24 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%32W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 73% 18% -2.2%
≤30d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 73% 18% -2.2%
≤90d 44 -8.7% -17.4% 73% 18% -2.2%
all 44 -8.7% -17.4% 73% 18% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 18% -2.2%
10% -25.3% 7% -11.6%
15% -32.5% 7% -20.1%
20% -39.2% 7% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses32 / 12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)44 / 56
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? No 61¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 69¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? No 85¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 16? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 17? No 98¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? No 98¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 +$29 +278%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 74¢ $10 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 89¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 25¢ $10 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY No 37¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 26¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $10 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 20h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 94¢ $10 23h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $4 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 20¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.80 · official $132.80 (match) · 99 history records