Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb898…c47d
crypto · 18 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$59
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage17d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$13
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 67¢ 73¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 78¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $11 −$3 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 −$7 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $63 −$15 -23%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% −$19
crypto 20% +$8
politics 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 38¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $0 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $0 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $0 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $31 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $38 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.0% -24.9% 25% 0% -23.0%
≤30d 17 +6.9% -3.2% 65% 59% -13.0%
≤90d 17 +6.9% -3.2% 65% 59% -13.0%
all 17 +6.9% -3.2% 65% 59% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 59% -13.0%
10% -12.5% 41% -21.3%
15% -21.0% 35% -28.9%
20% -28.7% 24% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.34 · official $59.34 (match) · 69 history records