Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb893…35d6 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,117 (-5%) realized −$4,121 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%66W / 67L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$610per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$322est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$881
7 days−$2,299
14 days−$4,674
30 days−$4,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$5,605
other 21% +$1,182
world 8% −$226
crypto 3% +$131
tech 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +24.3% +12.5% 52% 39% -14.3%
≤30d 119 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 36% -16.4%
≤90d 133 +4.3% -5.7% 50% 36% -15.4%
all 133 +4.3% -5.7% 50% 36% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 36% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 26% -23.5%
15% -22.9% 17% -30.9%
20% -30.5% 14% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$648) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$321 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$734
Realized−$4,121
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses66 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$322
Open positions7
Markets (closed)133 / 124
History coverage41d
Avg bet$610
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $295 $292 −$2 (-1%)
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5? No 93¢ 95¢ $186 $190 +$4 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $164 $167 +$3 (+2%)
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50? No 22¢ 24¢ $68 $75 +$6 (+9%)
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 87¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 79¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+65%)
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? No 36¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Ye be dropped as Wireless Headliner? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $243 +$42 +17%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $105 +$15 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,161 +$139 +12%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $246 +$26 +11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,378 +$60 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,844 +$156 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $722 +$508 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $111 −$109 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $746 −$741 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $32 −$31 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $342 −$340 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $559 −$549 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $138 +$162 +117%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,247 +$240 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $408 +$112 +27%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 18 $70 +$10 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $154 +$196 +126%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,932 +$468 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $334 +$1,319 +396%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $292 −$288 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 −$87 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $933 +$56 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $115 +$374 +324%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $552 +$580 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,149 −$2,130 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $425 +$116 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,490 +$507 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $158 −$156 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $655 −$648 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $767 −$720 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,980 −$3,973 -100%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $113 −$90 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 +$20 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $232 +$28 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,439 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $21 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $33 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $105 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 90¢ $246 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $11 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $379 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $429 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $321 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $236 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $3 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $919 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $352 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $922 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $107 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $277 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $323 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $26 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $29 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $323 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $35 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $631 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $8 26h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 18¢ $9 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.85 · official $733.85 (match) · 695 history records