Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb892…fd3a
other · 104 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$56 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$39 · open +$16
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3,195
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions88
Markets (closed)16 / 104
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 88 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$23 +112%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$81 +777%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$31 +153%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% −$33
world 6% +$23
sports 6% +$88
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 43m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $204 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $204 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $122 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $62 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $107 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +35.1% +22.2% 44% 38% +4.1%
≤30d 16 +35.1% +22.2% 44% 38% +4.1%
≤90d 16 +35.1% +22.2% 44% 38% +4.1%
all 16 +35.1% +22.2% 44% 38% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.2% 38% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here +10.5% 38% -5.8%
15% -0.2% 31% -14.9%
20% -9.9% 25% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,195.29 · official $3,193.31 (match) · 152 history records