Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb892…ed5f crypto 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$344 (-9%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%359W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$26
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
world 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -1.1% -10.5% 84% 12% -11.0%
≤30d 221 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 16% -11.8%
≤90d 639 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 34% -12.9%
all 639 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 34% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 27% -21.3%
15% -29.3% 22% -28.9%
20% -36.2% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses359 / 280
Open positions2
Markets (closed)639 / 641
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.62 · official $4.62 (match) · 3500 history records