Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb891…caa5 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$2
other 37% +$1
politics 5% $0
weather 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.7% -12.9% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 26% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 26% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -3.1% -12.3% 43% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage473d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $20 −$2 -10%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -35%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $83 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $38 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $81 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $17 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $15 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $33 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 44¢ $18 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $20 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records