trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 17% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 25% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 25% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 20 | -6.4% | -15.4% | 40% | 5% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 5% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -37.6% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 44¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $55 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $6 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 08 | $115 | +$8 | +7% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 08 | $81 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $89 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 03 | $2 | −$1 | -27% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 03 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $97 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? | Apr 01 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Michigan vs. Nebraska | Mar 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Feb 25 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Feb 23 | $9 | +$1 | +14% |