Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B8 0xb88e…cb19 sports 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+3%) realized −$65 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$81
sports 43% +$298
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +50.7% +36.3% 54% 52% -5.5%
≤30d 52 +50.7% +36.3% 54% 52% -5.5%
≤90d 52 +50.7% +36.3% 54% 52% -5.5%
all 52 +50.7% +36.3% 54% 52% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.3% 52% -5.5%
10% +23.3% 50% -14.6%
15% +11.4% 42% -22.8%
20% +0.4% 38% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 63
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $500 $625 +$125 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 +$33 +33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +238%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$146 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $501 +$37 +7%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +216%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$14 +276%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$47 +304%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$7 -35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$15 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1845%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 18m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $10 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 81¢ $101 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $10 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $501 25h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.60 · official $728.60 · 106 history records