Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb88e…9586 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
politics 30% $0
other 15% −$1
culture 6% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 55 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage321d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $64 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 20 $11 $0 -3%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during conference with Putin on A Aug 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 12 $49 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $53 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 09 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $5 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $16 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $20 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $3 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $24 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $17 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $14 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $18 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.81 · official $43.81 (match) · 178 history records