Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb88d…9b4d crypto 514 markets active 10h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-4%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%326W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -21.3% -28.8% 57% 16% -23.5%
≤30d 331 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 29% -28.4%
≤90d 514 -8.1% -16.9% 63% 35% -16.1%
all 514 -8.1% -16.9% 63% 35% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 35% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 15% -24.1%
15% -32.1% 9% -31.4%
20% -38.7% 5% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses326 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 514
History coverage43d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1292 history records