Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb88c…d652 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$97 (-4%) realized +$378 · open −$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$26
14 days+$7
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$223
world 22% +$106
other 17% +$22
tech 16% +$56
economics 13% −$5
sports 4% −$76
culture 3% +$11
crypto 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 40% -2.8%
≤30d 8 +13.9% +3.1% 88% 50% -5.5%
≤90d 17 +29.2% +16.9% 88% 71% +6.7%
all 62 -8.1% -16.8% 55% 44% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 44% +8.8%
10% -24.8% 31% -1.6%
15% -32.0% 19% -11.1%
20% -38.7% 18% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$16 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized+$378
Unrealized−$475
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Open positions14
Markets (closed)62 / 76
History coverage199d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $170 $123 −$47 (-28%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $105 $58 −$48 (-45%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 90¢ 31¢ $126 $44 −$82 (-65%)
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $153 $42 −$111 (-73%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $36 $31 −$5 (-14%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 67¢ 48¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-28%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $36 $16 −$20 (-57%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $64 $14 −$50 (-78%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $29 $11 −$17 (-61%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $45 $7 −$38 (-85%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-54%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $77 +$15 +19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok? Jun 17 $48 +$1 +2%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 17 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? Jun 11 $111 +$6 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $13 +$7 +59%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$11 +113%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $9 +$11 +122%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $18 +$12 +64%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? Apr 24 $17 +$3 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $15 +$5 +37%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Apr 20 $11 −$1 -11%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Apr 20 $54 +$46 +85%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $58 +$8 +14%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $8 +$2 +33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 30 $19 +$5 +24%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Mar 17 $6 +$9 +142%
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $15 +$3 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Mar 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 07 $24 +$25 +104%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Mar 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $94 +$6 +7%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Truth Social" in January? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January? Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Mar 04 $89 +$3 +4%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Mar 04 $52 −$52 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Mar 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Fed chair announcement? Mar 04 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 04 $52 −$41 -79%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Mar 03 $13 +$1 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 02 $38 +$12 +32%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $140 +$248 +178%
Will Trump say "Antifa" this week? (February 1) Feb 02 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Trump say "Dog" or "Doggy" this week? (February 1) Feb 02 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (February 1) Feb 02 $16 +$4 +28%
Will Trump say "N Word" in January? Feb 02 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $99 +$99 +100%
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 202 Jan 27 $32 +$8 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $92 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $22 1h
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $93 1h
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $117 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 9d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 40d
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 47d
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? BUY No 94¢ $111 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $18 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $9 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $32 63d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $10 74d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $58 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $24 78d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 91d
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 99d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $19 102d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY No 36¢ $30 102d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 102d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $51 102d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 104d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $20 106d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? SELL No 97¢ $15 106d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 75¢ $8 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 56¢ $11 106d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.02 · official $387.12 (match) · 347 history records