Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb88b…19d9 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,868 (+14%) realized +$7,869 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$2,564per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$6,530
sports 37% +$4,956
other 4% +$1,133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +18.9% +7.6% 75% 75% +13.2%
≤30d 20 +18.9% +7.6% 75% 75% +13.2%
≤90d 20 +18.9% +7.6% 75% 75% +13.2%
all 20 +18.9% +7.6% 75% 75% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 75% +13.2%
10% -2.7% 65% +2.4%
15% ← realistic here -12.1% 55% -7.5%
20% -20.7% 25% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,563) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,351 vs −$1,528 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5,999
Realized+$7,869
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2,564
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 59¢ 60¢ $3,000 $3,025 +$25 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 57¢ 56¢ $3,000 $2,973 −$27 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $5,106 +$2,078 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $4,076 +$1,373 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $2,253 +$1,871 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $3,094 −$3,000 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $2,728 −$2,693 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $3,574 +$1,434 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $1,517 +$260 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $3,073 +$1,553 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,544 +$1,687 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6,492 +$1,252 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $1,606 +$643 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,480 +$1,492 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,801 +$3,220 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $3,563 +$1,142 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $2,455 +$1,123 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,002 −$970 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $599 −$580 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $928 −$397 -43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,453 +$664 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $985 +$469 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $3,039 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $3,037 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7,184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $573 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1,250 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $746 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1,079 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $876 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $583 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5,449 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $863 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $810 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $693 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1,711 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $4,124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,998.58 · official $5,999.11 (match) · 145 history records