Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb88a…9efb crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+4%) realized +$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate82%23W / 5L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 71% -4.5%
≤30d 28 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 71% -4.5%
≤90d 28 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 71% -4.5%
all 28 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 71% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 71% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 18% -13.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -22.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses23 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records