Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B8 0xb886…f334 crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,232 (+5%) realized +$1,272 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +196% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +128% what you keep after slip
Net edge+128%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%92W / 63L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$501
world 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+167.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +195.7% +167.5% 59% 57% -12.6%
≤30d 155 +195.7% +167.5% 59% 57% -12.6%
≤90d 155 +195.7% +167.5% 59% 57% -12.6%
all 155 +195.7% +167.5% 59% 57% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +167.5% 57% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here +141.9% 55% -20.9%
15% +118.6% 50% -28.6%
20% +97.1% 43% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +196% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +166% → late +225% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$115 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1,272
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses92 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage4d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $258 +$217 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$34 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $320 +$94 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $115 +$98 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$206 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $671 +$494 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $668 −$650 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $154 +$106 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$47 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $474 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $258 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $77 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $107 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $78 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $116 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $70 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $71 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $173 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $413 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $514 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.01 · official $0.91 · 361 history records