Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb882…4ca3 politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$1
sports 17% $0
other 16% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage98d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $87 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $88 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $85 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $85 12h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $85 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $85 18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $85 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 28d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 29d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 29d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 30d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 35d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $86 35d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 37d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 39d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 40d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $86 44d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $86 45d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $86 45d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $86 48d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 48d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $86 52d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 52d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $76 52d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $87 69d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $87 69d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $87 73d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $87 74d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $87 79d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records