Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb87f…0a24
crypto · 96 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
−$25 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 3 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$21
14 days−$2
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 05 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$19 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 27 $32 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 May 26 $14 −$1 -9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $27 −$5 -20%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 21 $16 −$5 -29%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $29 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 20 $10 +$22 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 20 $16 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 20 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d May 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 17 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 16 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%? May 16 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 35% +$32
other 24% −$18
world 13% −$7
finance 10% −$10
tech 7% −$5
politics 6% −$6
culture 3% −$1
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 26h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb SELL No 48¢ $24 7d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 8d
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb BUY No 53¢ $13 8d
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb BUY No 52¢ $13 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.9% -36.5% 54% 46% -33.2%
≤30d 49 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 39% -17.1%
≤90d 93 +5.9% -4.2% 47% 33% -11.9%
all 93 +5.9% -4.2% 47% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 33% -11.9%
10% -13.4% 26% -20.3%
15% -21.7% 23% -28.0%
20% -29.4% 18% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.94 · official $14.94 (match) · 219 history records