Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb87b…4b4a world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$4
other 14% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 22% -7.8%
≤90d 9 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 22% -7.8%
all 25 +2.2% -7.5% 48% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 8% -8.5%
10% -16.4% 4% -17.2%
15% -24.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage449d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $16 +$2 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $13 +$2 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $42 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $44 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $45 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $44 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $15 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $15 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $14 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $17 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $17 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $15 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $13 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $41 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $42 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 26d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 332d
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? SELL No 98¢ $12 358d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.44 · official $43.44 (match) · 62 history records