trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 44% | 22% | -7.8% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 44% | 22% | -7.8% |
| all | 25 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 48% | 8% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.5% | 8% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 4% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 0% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 90¢ | $44 | $43 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $64 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 26 | $16 | +$2 | +10% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 25 | $13 | +$2 | +14% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 25 | $42 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $8 | +$2 | +24% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Jun 26 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 19 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 16 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 15 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 14 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 12 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? | Apr 12 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? | Apr 11 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser | Apr 11 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 10 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum | Apr 07 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 01 | $13 | $0 | -0% |