Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb87b…3626 crypto 158 markets active 3h ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$90,059 (-30%) realized −$93,082 · open +$3,023
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%73W / 79L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,902per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$4,885est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,563
7 days+$10,431
14 days−$60,330
30 days−$87,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$76,691
other 21% +$1,795
crypto 4% −$2,628
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +50.4% +36.1% 48% 48% +3.5%
≤30d 67 +18.5% +7.2% 39% 39% -43.8%
≤90d 110 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 35% -37.8%
all 152 +13.7% +2.9% 48% 47% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 47% -36.4%
10% -7.0% 43% -42.5%
15% ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -48.0%
20% -24.2% 30% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,579) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,092 vs −$2,055 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$10,400
Realized−$93,082
Unrealized+$3,023
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses73 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$4,885
Open positions6
Markets (closed)152 / 158
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$1,902
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1,248 $4,004 +$2,756 (+221%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,160 $2,702 +$543 (+25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,872 $1,508 −$364 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,006 $1,234 +$228 (+23%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $675 $588 −$88 (-13%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $416 $364 −$52 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4,574 +$4,822 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,092 −$4,080 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,231 +$1,019 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $226 +$1,774 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,107 +$6,878 +85%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,102 −$4,050 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,909 −$4,800 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $286 −$280 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,054 +$2,146 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $581 −$566 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,387 +$2,607 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,797 −$1,760 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,593 +$1,407 +31%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $435 −$423 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $620 −$620 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,365 +$1,190 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,628 −$1,617 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,579 +$721 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 $0 +0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $97 −$95 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,826 +$5,174 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,602 −$3,520 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $493 +$344 +70%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,682 +$11,302 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $200 +$1,299 +650%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,440 −$8,400 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $57,494 −$57,151 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,195 −$5,180 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,742 +$1,196 +25%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $185 −$180 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $460 −$455 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2,919 −$2,880 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,214 +$765 +63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,101 −$1,080 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $1,126 −$1,100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,083 −$1,060 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,619 −$4,560 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,131 +$1,500 +133%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $225 −$220 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $127 −$124 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,003 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $234 +$266 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $286 +$713 +249%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $720 +$2,740 +381%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $3,245 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2,759 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,996 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $620 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,518 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $620 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,500 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $98 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $300 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $296 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $293 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $98 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $565 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $565 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $124 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,207 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $307 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $75 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,672 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,400.12 · official $10,400.12 (match) · 3500 history records