Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb87b…3f57 crypto 351 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,871 (-8%) realized −$3,871 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate68%238W / 113L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$267
14 days+$267
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,753
sports 9% −$429
other 7% −$267
world 0% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +15.0% +4.1% 65% 58% +6.5%
≤30d 97 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 49% -9.5%
≤90d 221 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 43% -14.1%
all 351 +0.5% -9.0% 68% 48% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 48% -16.4%
10% -17.7% 34% -24.4%
15% -25.7% 26% -31.7%
20% -33.0% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$106 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,871
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses238 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage228d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 351 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$83 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$61 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$80 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$91 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$52 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$66 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $74 +$56 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$61 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 22 $72 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 21 $65 −$30 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 21 $182 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 21 $29 +$71 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 21 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 21 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 21 $105 +$52 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 21 $93 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 21 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 21 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 21 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 21 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 21 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 21 $197 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 19 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 19 $162 +$38 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $83 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $24 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $49 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $39 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2286 history records