Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb87a…63a1 politics 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,706 (+1%) realized +$1,707 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate30%35W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,050per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$75
other 33% −$212
sports 9% +$2,084
world 4% −$4
tech 3% −$92
crypto 1% −$13
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -18.1% -25.9% 6% 3% -9.4%
all 118 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 10% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 10% -8.3%
10% -18.9% 10% -17.1%
15% -26.7% 8% -25.1%
20% -33.9% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,501) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$10 · ×7.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,096
Realized+$1,707
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses35 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,050
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $860 $860 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $236 $236 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $2,904 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $3,187 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,349 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,212 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,088 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7,761 −$10 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $503 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $844 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,065 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $2,384 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $4,076 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,335 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $1,004 −$90 -9%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $4,677 −$5 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,390 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5,078 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,197 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $7,334 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $2,528 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $2,823 −$3 -0%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 07 $956 +$882 +92%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 27 $94 −$94 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 26 $98 +$29 +30%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $422 $0 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-02-08? Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $236 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $492 5h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $493 7h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $860 29h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,364 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,366 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,453 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,455 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,585 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,587 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,367 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,369 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,308 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,310 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,498 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,501 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,556 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,559 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,210 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,212 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $711 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $712 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,493 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,495 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,096.06 · official $1,096.06 (match) · 405 history records