Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb879…57c1 crypto 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-3%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%162W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$6
crypto 32% −$23
other 5% −$11
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 47% -13.1%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 47% -13.1%
≤90d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 47% -13.1%
all 255 -2.6% -11.8% 64% 50% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% -8.4%
10% -20.3% 30% -17.2%
15% -28.0% 12% -25.2%
20% -35.0% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses162 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage174d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 11 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 02 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 02 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 02 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 02 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 02 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 02 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 28 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 28 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 28 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 28 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 28 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 28 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 28 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 28 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 809 history records