Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb878…226f crypto 1527 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,023 (+8%) realized +$1,023 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%838W / 689L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day126.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$77
14 days+$158
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 754 +4.7% -5.2% 55% 52% -8.4%
≤30d 1527 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 1527 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 52% -8.4%
all 1527 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 52% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 49% -17.2%
15% -23.1% 42% -25.2%
20% -30.6% 34% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses838 / 689
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1527 / 1527
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day126.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1527 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$9 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$8 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records