Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb878…a56b crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+1%) realized +$51 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate65%53W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$79
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$110
other 9% +$83
politics 3% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +31.5% +18.9% 80% 60% +21.2%
≤30d 6 +25.5% +13.5% 67% 50% +12.9%
≤90d 7 +16.7% +5.6% 57% 43% +10.2%
all 82 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 28% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 28% -9.3%
10% -19.4% 17% -18.0%
15% -27.2% 9% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses53 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage425d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $74 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 27 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 14 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 13 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 13 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 13 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 13 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 13 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 13 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $60 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 12 $84 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 12 $39 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 12 $66 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 12 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 04 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $31 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $59 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $38 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.43 · official $69.44 (match) · 421 history records