Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb876…f80c sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,077 (+19%) realized +$1,064 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$290
other 32% +$360
crypto 4% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +9.8% -0.7% 52% 52% +4.3%
≤30d 29 +9.8% -0.7% 52% 52% +4.3%
≤90d 29 +9.8% -0.7% 52% 52% +4.3%
all 29 +9.8% -0.7% 52% 52% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 52% +4.3%
10% -10.2% 48% -5.7%
15% -18.9% 48% -14.8%
20% -26.8% 45% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$102 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized+$1,064
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 66¢ $297 $304 +$7 (+2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $119 $125 +$6 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $103 +$132 +129%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $100 −$99 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $150 −$110 -73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $245 +$257 +105%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $273 −$27 -10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $200 +$100 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $300 −$228 -76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $100 +$89 +89%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $135 −$73 -54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $300 +$254 +85%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 −$65 -65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$146 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $165 −$125 -76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $93 +$60 +64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $100 −$88 -88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$70 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $196 +$198 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 +$124 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $100 +$105 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $150 −$50 -33%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $586 +$87 +15%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0. Jun 18 $100 +$123 +123%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $450 +$337 +75%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $60 −$27 -45%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $80 +$126 +158%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $122 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 70¢ $121 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $125 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $300 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $200 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $100 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $150 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $245 24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 41¢ $246 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $273 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $300 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 12¢ $72 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $300 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $200 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $189 38h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $62 40h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $135 40h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $100 40h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL No 16¢ $35 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 12¢ $40 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $165 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $153 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.10 · official $429.10 (match) · 67 history records