Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb875…ac87 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,472 (+3%) realized +$1,486 · open +$986
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,132per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1,281est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,237
7 days+$4,858
14 days−$3,405
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,957
other 18% +$1,426
world 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +51.2% +36.8% 55% 55% +20.1%
≤30d 66 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 67 +1.0% -8.6% 37% 37% -11.5%
all 67 +1.0% -8.6% 37% 37% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 37% -11.5%
10% -17.3% 37% -20.0%
15% -25.3% 37% -27.7%
20% -32.6% 37% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,255) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$923 vs −$586 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$11,849
Realized+$1,486
Unrealized+$986
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,281
Open positions6
Markets (closed)67 / 73
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1,132
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 37¢ $4,432 $6,128 +$1,695 (+38%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $4,730 $4,543 −$187 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 100¢ $520 $1,027 +$507 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs GenOne 32¢ 32¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 42¢ 0¢ $700 $1 −$699 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $330 $1 −$329 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,282 −$106 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,255 +$1,195 +95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $458 +$667 +146%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,567 −$83 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $709 +$563 +79%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $387 +$668 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $488 +$603 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $458 +$696 +152%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,518 +$941 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $458 −$26 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,238 +$636 +51%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,446 −$135 -9%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$278 +91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $508 −$258 -51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $62 +$122 +197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $195 +$924 +475%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $637 +$395 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $585 −$265 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $995 −$380 -38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $687 −$680 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $357 −$350 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $528 −$520 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $478 −$470 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,256 −$5,182 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $458 +$588 +129%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $993 −$977 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $468 −$70 -15%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,133 −$1,500 -70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $428 −$420 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,617 −$122 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,065 −$66 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4,522 −$2,107 -47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,067 −$3,030 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $458 −$450 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,728 +$1,425 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $570 +$604 +106%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $809 +$441 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $382 −$179 -47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $559 −$443 -79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $658 +$408 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $508 +$603 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $367 −$244 -66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $468 −$460 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $164 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $2,335 +$2,921 +125%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $712 −$80 -11%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $306 +$745 +243%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $712 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $337 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $423 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $109 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $109 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $68 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $277 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $1,282 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $541 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $528 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,609 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $175 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $199 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY GenOne 32¢ $153 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $203 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,504 4h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,848.59 · official $11,926.15 (match) · 232 history records