Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb875…76c7 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-2%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days+$202
14 days+$64
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$410
sports 33% +$280
other 1% −$11
finance 1% +$19
world 1% −$20
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +40.1% +26.8% 55% 55% +72.7%
≤30d 89 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 47% -11.8%
≤90d 103 -5.8% -14.7% 46% 44% -13.4%
all 103 -5.8% -14.7% 46% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 44% -13.4%
10% -22.9% 41% -21.7%
15% -30.3% 37% -29.2%
20% -37.2% 34% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 56
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage35d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $71 +$182 +256%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$79 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$13 +132%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$27 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$49 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$130 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $122 −$27 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $76 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $67 +$36 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$69 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$41 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $151 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$21 +81%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $132 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $31 +$19 +61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $20 +$19 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $10 +$10 +95%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 10 $20 +$12 +58%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $41 +$66 +162%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 09 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 09 $20 +$25 +122%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $71 −$70 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 96¢ $17 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Toronto Blue Jays 94¢ $129 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Toronto Blue Jays 95¢ $125 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 87¢ $5 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 87¢ $10 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 86¢ $13 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $10 2h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $10 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $10 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 12¢ $5 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 15¢ $5 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 17¢ $10 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $5 4h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $10 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $10 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $10 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $100 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $30 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $13 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $24 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $10 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 24¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $17 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records