Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb871…1cb8 sports 681 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$136 (-0%) realized −$179 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate72%481W / 190L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days+$44
14 days−$52
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$234
sports 5% −$123
crypto 4% −$269
tech 4% −$2
weather 2% +$2
culture 1% −$22
world 0% −$6
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 44% -6.6%
≤30d 257 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 32% -15.3%
≤90d 378 -5.1% -14.1% 64% 26% -11.0%
all 671 -2.6% -11.8% 72% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 15% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 11% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 10% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses481 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions10
Markets (closed)671 / 681
History coverage185d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $49 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 34¢ 100¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+194%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+67%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 65¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+38%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$4 +44%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $47 +$7 +16%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $49 +$6 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$8 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$35 -74%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $38 +$14 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 −$1 -7%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +8%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 +$51 +130%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$17 -34%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$10 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $44 −$1 -3%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$21 +488%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$13 +26%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $44 −$8 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $47 +$6 +13%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$9 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$5 -17%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $120 +$115 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 65¢ $13 38m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 44¢ $9 39m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 90¢ $40 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 87¢ $10 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $34 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $21 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 93¢ $9 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 93¢ $10 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 93¢ $2 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 93¢ $12 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 93¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 91¢ $20 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 99¢ $11 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 91¢ $10 26h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $7 28h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $3 28h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 93¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.55 · official $285.55 (match) · 1832 history records