Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb870…c48e crypto 21 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-17%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% $0
other 23% −$19
crypto 18% −$35
tech 7% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -37.3% -43.3% 40% 40% -26.5%
≤30d 20 -37.3% -43.3% 40% 40% -26.5%
≤90d 20 -37.3% -43.3% 40% 40% -26.5%
all 20 -37.3% -43.3% 40% 40% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 40% -26.5%
10% -48.7% 35% -33.6%
15% -53.7% 30% -40.0%
20% -58.2% 10% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $10 +$14 +133%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes $0 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 35¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 78¢ $16 3d
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 42¢ $10 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 30¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records