Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb86e…e38d crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-8%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$9
other 10% −$2
sports 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.7% -12.8% 57% 54% -12.8%
≤30d 35 -3.7% -12.8% 57% 54% -12.8%
≤90d 43 -19.2% -26.9% 49% 44% -23.7%
all 43 -19.2% -26.9% 49% 44% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 44% -23.7%
10% -33.9% 33% -31.0%
15% -40.3% 23% -37.6%
20% -46.1% 14% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 104 history records