Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb868…5e23 sports 542 markets active 8h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate65%350W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$99
14 days−$85
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$72
world 9% +$23
other 8% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
politics 1% −$24
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 53% -19.7%
≤30d 232 +7.5% -2.7% 69% 49% -11.1%
≤90d 474 +1.0% -8.6% 65% 36% -11.7%
all 540 +0.4% -9.2% 65% 36% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -11.6%
10% -17.9% 24% -20.1%
15% -25.8% 19% -27.8%
20% -33.1% 14% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses350 / 190
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)540 / 542
History coverage397d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 540 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands India 94¢ 100¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+6%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Brazil 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $73 +$7 +10%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $20 −$15 -76%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $36 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $48 +$6 +12%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $22 +$3 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $20 +$18 +90%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $63 +$13 +20%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $8 +$11 +134%
ITF Zagreb: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Gina Marie Dittmann Jun 12 $12 +$2 +16%
ITF Guimaraes: Francisca Jorge vs Aliona Falei Jun 12 $4 +$3 +79%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $29 +$13 +46%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $8 +$6 +79%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $25 −$24 -99%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $4 +$6 +152%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Landskrona BoIS win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$12 +146%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $10 +$5 +54%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $20 +$5 +23%
ITF Zagreb: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Mina Hodzic Jun 11 $7 +$3 +50%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Martha Matoula vs Anna Dvorackova Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $8 −$4 -48%
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Yeon Woo Ku Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $41 +$24 +60%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $5 −$3 -55%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $27 −$26 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $21 −$11 -55%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 11 $16 −$5 -34%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
ITF Hurghada: Summer Yardley vs Martyna Kubka Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
ITF Hurghada: Sara Milanese vs Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 11 $24 −$24 -99%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $16 +$4 +24%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 10 $38 +$6 +14%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $3 +$3 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $3 +$1 +48%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $8 −$2 -20%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $8 −$3 -37%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $16 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Darya Astakhova 46¢ $5 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $38 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 93¢ $2 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 91¢ $73 9h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Darya Astakhova 44¢ $4 9h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Darya Astakhova 44¢ $4 9h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Darya Astakhova 44¢ $4 9h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Darya Astakhova 44¢ $4 9h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Darya Astakhova 44¢ $4 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $4 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 95¢ $4 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $4 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $4 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $4 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland SELL England 94¢ $36 23h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 66¢ $26 23h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 63¢ $25 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 95¢ $29 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $4 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $4 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $7 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 52¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 52¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 52¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 52¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 52¢ $4 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.65 · official $62.65 (match) · 1977 history records