Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb866…452e sports 42 markets active 2d ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$7
other 40% −$5
sports 8% +$27
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 42 -15.5% -23.6% 24% 24% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 24% -9.3%
10% -30.9% 24% -18.0%
15% -37.5% 24% -25.9%
20% -43.7% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$8 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage571d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $860 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Devils Nov 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Viktorija Golubic Nov 03 $7 +$9 +122%
Senators vs. Sabres Oct 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Islanders Oct 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Astros vs. Athletics Sep 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Marlins vs. Phillies Sep 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Lions vs. Ravens Sep 23 $4 +$9 +212%
Cubs vs. Pirates Sep 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Pirates vs. Orioles Sep 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Wyoming vs. Akron Aug 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Aug 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $7 +$5 +72%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Astros vs. Yankees Aug 12 $7 +$7 +89%
Will Charlie Hook win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 06 $3 +$2 +70%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 30 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $9 $0 -2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Senators vs. Predators Feb 04 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Feb 03 $110 +$102 +92%
Capitals vs. Senators Jan 31 $102 +$100 +98%
Bulls vs. Spurs Dec 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Pacers vs. Nets Dec 05 $26 +$32 +122%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Nov 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Nov 22 $9 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $230 41h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $310 41h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $370 41h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $230 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $310 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $370 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $210 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $370 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $210 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $370 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $429 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $180 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $350 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $390 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $350 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $390 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $180 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $429 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records