Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B8 0xb864…85f1 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$40 (+63%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$5
sports 16% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+66.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +83.6% +66.1% 67% 67% +46.0%
≤30d 3 +83.6% +66.1% 67% 67% +46.0%
≤90d 3 +83.6% +66.1% 67% 67% +46.0%
all 3 +83.6% +66.1% 67% 67% +46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +66.1% 67% +46.0%
10% +50.2% 33% +32.0%
15% +35.7% 33% +19.2%
20% +22.4% 33% +7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$2 · ×8.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.4 per $1 lost it wins $17.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $10 +$35 +337%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $10 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $24 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $26 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records