Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B8 0xb864…8e69 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate94%16W / 1L

Drawdown96%max

Avg bet$326per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$2

30 days+$3

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-14.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+3.2%	-6.6%	100%	0%	-6.6%
≤90d	4	+1.8%	-7.9%	100%	0%	-7.9%
all	17	-5.0%	-14.0%	94%	0%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.0%	0%	-9.4%
10%	-22.3%	0%	-18.1%
15%	-29.8%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-36.7%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$34 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage

Net worth$52

Realized+$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)94%

Wins / losses16 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage226d

Avg bet$326

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown96%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	No	100¢	100¢	$52	$52	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Jun 08	$49	+$2	+5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Jun 01	$49	+$1	+1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 29?	May 13	$49	$0	+0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	Apr 28	$49	$0	+0%
Will Iranian officials visit the White House by February 28?	Mar 14	$48	$0	+0%
Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.00 in January?	Feb 26	$48	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on February	Feb 10	$48	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?	Jan 11	$34	−$34	-100%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026?	Jan 11	$33	+$1	+3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?	Dec 22	$33	$0	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114,000 on November 17?	Nov 16	$1,082	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	Nov 15	$1,081	+$1	+0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?	Nov 15	$1,053	+$28	+3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 13?	Nov 13	$2,071	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?	Nov 12	$39	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8?	Nov 10	$39	$0	+0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 October 27-November 2?	Nov 07	$5	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$52	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$49	12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY No	99¢	$49	34d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 29?	BUY No	100¢	$49	50d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?	BUY No	99¢	$49	95d
Will Iranian officials visit the White House by February 28?	BUY No	100¢	$48	110d
Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.00 in January?	BUY No	100¢	$48	126d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on February	BUY No	100¢	$48	133d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?	BUY No	93¢	$34	156d
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$33	176d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?	BUY No	99¢	$33	212d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114,000 on November 17?	SELL No	100¢	$1,083	212d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114,000 on November 17?	BUY No	100¢	$1,082	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$30	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$132	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$40	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$40	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$104	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$100	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$7	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$85	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$101	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$6	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$10	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$91	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$102	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$5	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$6	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$118	213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November	SELL No	100¢	$6	213d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.93 · official $51.93 (match) · 70 history records