Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb861…58d6 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2
other 23% −$6
politics 19% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 19 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 56 -3.6% -12.8% 18% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage313d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $8 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $25 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $38 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $79 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Aug 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $4 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4000 on August 11 at 5PM ET? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $25 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $10 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $15 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $21 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.88 · official $38.88 (match) · 200 history records