Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb85f…b0a0 crypto 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$107 (+0%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%132W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$275
weather 20% +$23
other 19% +$37
politics 7% −$192
world 4% −$105
sports 3% +$1
finance 2% +$44
tech 1% +$24
economics 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 43 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 2% -8.4%
all 147 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 3% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$39 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses132 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage603d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $373 $373 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $121 $121 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 23 $84 +$2 +3%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $156 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $126 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $153 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 29? May 30 $105 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29? May 30 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 29? May 30 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $213 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $532 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on May 25? May 26 $393 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 25? May 26 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $187 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 18? May 21 $95 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 18? May 21 $324 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 17? May 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 16? May 16 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16? May 16 $204 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 15? May 15 $322 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 14 $86 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 11? May 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 10? May 10 $176 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 10 May 10 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 10? May 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 20°C on May 9? May 08 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 21°C on May 9? May 08 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 18°C on May 9? May 08 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? May 02 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Apr 22 $98 +$1 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $58 +$21 +37%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $142 +$6 +4%
Will Tesla reach $503 in March? Apr 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $42 +$2 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $60 +$3 +5%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Mar 17 $288 +$4 +2%
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars? Mar 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31? Mar 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? Mar 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 12 $311 +$40 +13%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 11 $285 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $373 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $84 15d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $126 15d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $50 15d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $107 15d
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 99¢ $60 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 31? BUY No 97¢ $45 25d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $153 25d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $88 25d
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 95¢ $121 26d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 27d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? SELL No 89¢ $149 27d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? SELL No 89¢ $22 27d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? SELL No 89¢ $47 27d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $110 28d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $105 28d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $105 28d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 85¢ $146 28d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 90¢ $67 28d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $532 30d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $393 30d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $139 30d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $187 34d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $225 39d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $95 39d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 39d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $110 39d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $322 40d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $322 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.04 · official $554.10 (match) · 701 history records