Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb85d…4ac4 world 439 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11,086 (-3%) realized −$11,089 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate66%286W / 147L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$973per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$6,735
30 days−$5,996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$9,344
other 21% −$946
politics 20% +$996
crypto 12% −$2,626
finance 7% +$148
economics 4% +$991
culture 3% −$691
sports 3% +$92
tech 2% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 25% -11.8%
≤30d 73 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 23% -17.9%
≤90d 225 -3.0% -12.3% 73% 24% -12.0%
all 433 -3.3% -12.5% 66% 24% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 24% -12.0%
10% -20.9% 12% -20.4%
15% -28.5% 7% -28.1%
20% -35.5% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,538) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$210 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$11,089
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses286 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)433 / 439
History coverage344d
Avg bet$973
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Haiti elections delayed again? Yes 70¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31? No 54¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 75¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $27 +$3 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$9 +52%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 19 $39 −$23 -57%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $35 +$4 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $84 −$16 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 15 $47 +$2 +4%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $44 +$3 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $35 +$3 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $40 −$5 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $33 +$2 +5%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal - Completed match? Jun 10 $31 +$2 +5%
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $31 +$1 +2%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $35 −$7 -20%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 +$3 +11%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral electio Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 08 $26 +$5 +21%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +17%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +17%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 07 $1 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 07 $1 $0 +48%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5,536 −$3,905 -70%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 07 $6,693 −$1,187 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 07 $340 −$26 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,846 −$1,186 -64%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1,009 −$430 -43%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $28 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $28 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $29 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $27 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $26 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $26 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 36h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 36h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 4d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 97¢ $39 4d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 4d
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $2 4d
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $37 4d
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $35 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $33 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $33 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $35 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 71¢ $35 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $49 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 90¢ $49 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 85¢ $47 6d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 6d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 7d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 7d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $38 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $35 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.69 · official $36.53 (match) · 1738 history records