Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb85d…f8ed crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$91
crypto 21% −$2
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +33.8% +21.0% 60% 53% +35.5%
≤30d 15 +33.8% +21.0% 60% 53% +35.5%
≤90d 15 +33.8% +21.0% 60% 53% +35.5%
all 32 +2.5% -7.3% 53% 47% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 47% +23.6%
10% -16.2% 38% +11.8%
15% -24.3% 38% +1.0%
20% -31.7% 28% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.16 per $1 lost it wins $6.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage101d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$21 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 15 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $59 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.49 · official $61.42 (match) · 60 history records