Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb85b…ec4f world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$1
other 13% −$12
politics 3% $0
sports 2% +$7
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.0% -1.4% 33% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 15 +2.8% -7.0% 33% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +2.8% -7.0% 33% 13% -9.4%
all 24 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 12% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 8% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 8% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage487d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $79 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $39 −$3 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $81 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $23 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Mar 19 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Mar 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Feb 23 $3 $0 +8%
Campbell vs. North Carolina A&T Feb 22 $7 +$7 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $2 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $8 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $5 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $3 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $11 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.09 · official $42.09 (match) · 75 history records