Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb855…c1be crypto 429 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,686 (-5%) realized −$2,667 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%205W / 219L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$332
7 days−$3,781
14 days−$1,803
30 days−$1,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1,023
sports 11% −$155
other 9% +$61
weather 8% −$273
world 0% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -30.9% -37.5% 31% 29% -31.8%
≤30d 184 -19.9% -27.6% 38% 36% -17.7%
≤90d 424 -14.6% -22.7% 48% 34% -12.4%
all 424 -14.6% -22.7% 48% 34% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 34% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 29% -20.7%
15% -36.9% 26% -28.4%
20% -43.1% 23% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$57 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,069
Realized−$2,667
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses205 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)424 / 429
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$120
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 91¢ 92¢ $1,801 $1,825 +$24 (+1%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $72 $77 +$5 (+6%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 32¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $751 +$76 +10%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 20 $93 −$39 -41%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $15 +$85 +550%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 +$78 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$30 -30%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $91 +$72 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $122 +$128 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $152 +$45 +30%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$41 +102%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$39 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$107 +70%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 −$3 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $91 +$59 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$18 +216%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$121 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $91 +$56 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$32 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$54 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$102 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $448 +$66 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$63 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $264 +$136 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $424 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $403 2h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 92¢ $604 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 95¢ $682 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $8 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $302 6h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $61 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 21h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $71 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 27h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 89¢ $365 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $122 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $91 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $122 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 44h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 90¢ $451 44h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 89¢ $526 44h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,069.46 · official $2,072.80 (match) · 3500 history records