Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb854…a75d other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,135 (+4%) realized +$1,720 · open −$585
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$890per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$3,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$762
7 days+$779
14 days+$987
30 days+$987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$319
sports 3% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 77% 18% -5.8%
≤30d 28 +2.2% -7.6% 79% 14% -5.9%
≤90d 28 +2.2% -7.6% 79% 14% -5.9%
all 28 +2.2% -7.6% 79% 14% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 14% -5.9%
10% -16.4% 7% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 7% -23.1%
20% -31.9% 4% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,263) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$55 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3,971
Realized+$1,720
Unrealized−$585
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage12d
Avg bet$890
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 57¢ $1,900 $1,482 −$418 (-22%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,380 $1,443 +$64 (+5%)
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $692 $706 +$14 (+2%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 16¢ $334 $185 −$149 (-45%)
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 62¢ $250 $154 −$96 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $644 +$303 +47%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $4,510 +$177 +4%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 24 $103 +$77 +75%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $1,551 +$29 +2%
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,216 +$163 +7%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $186 +$4 +2%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $231 +$8 +3%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $401 +$57 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $402 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $855 +$11 +1%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,263 +$165 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $1,214 −$169 -14%
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $282 −$20 -7%
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,467 +$38 +1%
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $115 −$45 -39%
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $477 +$23 +5%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 19 $101 −$84 -83%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $501 +$37 +7%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $1,006 +$84 +8%
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $265 +$18 +7%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $1,701 +$24 +1%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,551 +$20 +1%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 16 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,002 +$74 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5m
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 68¢ $303 6m
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 71¢ $303 6m
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 6m
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 50¢ $611 12m
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 92¢ $85 13m
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 95¢ $801 14m
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $100 14m
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 92¢ $301 14m
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $95 14m
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $693 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 46¢ $113 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 45¢ $221 3h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? SELL No 18¢ $180 3h
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 45¢ $3 3h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 10¢ $103 4h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 32¢ $323 4h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 32¢ $322 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,002 5h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,002 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $0 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $70 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $359 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $22 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,970.88 · official $4,020.76 · 282 history records