Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B8 0xb853…7760 crypto 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate83%177W / 37L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$15
14 days+$14
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% +$59
crypto 38% +$46
sports 1% $0
other 1% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.2% -13.3% 81% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 60 +2.1% -7.6% 95% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 124 +1.4% -8.3% 97% 1% -8.9%
all 214 +0.7% -8.9% 83% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses177 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage584d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$26 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $252 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $127 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $137 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $104 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $222 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$5 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 06 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? Jun 04 $213 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $212 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $209 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 1? Jun 01 $207 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $205 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 30? May 31 $195 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? May 30 $138 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $193 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 28? May 29 $192 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $183 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma May 28 $187 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $185 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? May 27 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? May 26 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 26? May 26 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma May 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $120 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $121 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $95 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $109 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $133 39h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $6 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $9 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $31 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $19 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $17 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $252 42h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.05 · official $162.05 (match) · 584 history records