Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb853…1939 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+0%) realized +$85 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%41W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,080per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$67
other 6% $0
world 2% $0
finance 1% −$2
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 41 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,991) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$2,014
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses41 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)41 / 53
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,080
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $534 $531 −$3 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $514 $508 −$5 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $354 $353 −$2 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $282 $282 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 26 $174 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $109 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in April 2026? May 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? May 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $3,863 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $3,955 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $2,962 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $4,037 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $4,057 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $4,058 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $1,062 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $1,995 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $1,990 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $2,072 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $1,990 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $1,992 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $1,991 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? Apr 08 $1,988 +$2 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $1,989 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of March 20 Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $178 +$1 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? Apr 02 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 20 Apr 02 $265 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of March 20 Apr 02 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 20 Apr 02 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $1,647 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $1,652 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $1,234 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $497 +$6 +1%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $749 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $1,770 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $1,769 +$2 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 16 $105 +$1 +1%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 24 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $534 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $339 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $282 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $355 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $175 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $174 7d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 25d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $110 25d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $110 25d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $110 50d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $109 50d
Trump goes to space in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 50d
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,863 60d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,955 61d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $231 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $306 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $306 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $306 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $312 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $322 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,013.79 · official $2,013.79 (match) · 137 history records