Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb851…0dfe weather 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,948 (+21%) realized +$5,963 · open −$2,015
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate87%26W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% +$2,900
crypto 32% +$424
politics 29% −$2,062
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+73.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.8% -41.0% 50% 50% -36.5%
≤30d 17 +134.1% +111.8% 76% 65% +12.4%
≤90d 30 +91.5% +73.3% 87% 70% +12.5%
all 30 +91.5% +73.3% 87% 70% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.3% 70% +12.5%
10% +56.7% 43% +1.8%
15% +41.6% 40% -8.1%
20% +27.7% 37% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +150% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$104 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.88 per $1 lost it wins $8.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$4,429
Realized+$5,963
Unrealized−$2,015
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses26 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage46d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 98¢ $2,137 $4,200 +$2,062 (+96%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? No 9¢ 13¢ $107 $154 +$48 (+45%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $2,137 $75 −$2,062 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $596 +$68 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $479 −$389 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $39 +$923 +2348%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,312 +$1,235 +94%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $62 +$53 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $105 +$71 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $462 +$193 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $53 +$53 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$17 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$9 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $83 +$48 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,838 +$424 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2,296 +$267 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $116 +$24 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $126 +$34 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13? May 13 $490 +$60 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4? May 04 $49 +$48 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $155 +$98 +63%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 4? May 03 $3 +$3 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 3? May 03 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 3? May 03 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3? May 03 $94 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3? May 03 $90 +$61 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 3? May 03 $171 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3? May 03 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $559 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $11 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $7 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $223 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $70 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $164 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $150 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $120 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $141 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,428.65 · official $4,428.06 (match) · 568 history records